Premature Congratulations (2012 Edition)

Although Florida has yet to be called because the Miami-Dade County vote counters decided to stop counting last night and go to sleep (lazy Democrats), Chuck Todd has assured me that the vote total in Florida is only going to continue to favor Obama more and more as those uncounted votes come in and, as a result, at this point I am prepared to once again declare that I am the winner of my own contest. I feel like the only state I really went out on a limb calling in Obama's favor was Florida (and Virginia to a much lesser extent), so I can't praise myself too heavily. I'll leave it in the hands of the historians to praise my political prognosticating genius, as they undoubtedly will. Better luck in 2016 everyone.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Obama 290 - Romney 234. I tried to be generous to Romney.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map

Also...this

Should you need inspiration on this night of nights.

Matt's picks

I realize I missed the deadline, but I've filed an appeal and am confident that I will receive special dispensation to move forward with this post. Florida is giving me fits, because it's been trending toward Obama. But given the general state of affairs down there, I'm going to hedge my bets and say that it goes Red. Colorado and Nevada will go blue, as will Virginia (barely). Obama will lose Indiana and North Carolina. My upper and lower bounds are 280 and 322 respectively, but I'm going with this as my prediction:

On the other hand, I've heard that this whole thing is a tossup. Who knows how this crazy election thingie will turn out, it's like a cup-and-ball! So I might look stupid tomorrow.

David's Pick

Like last election, I'm going to err on the side of the optimistic but plausible with Obama winning everywhere he won last time except Indiana, North Carolina and that one Nebraska electoral vote. I see him squeaking by in Florida with that being the closest state he wins and roughly a 51-49 national popular vote margin. For my bonus predictions, neither bold, I will say the Democrats retain the Senate, don't make much progress in the House, and Yes on 1 wins in Maine. Obama wins 332-206

Jon's Picks

Although I'm tempted to do the reverse-jinx and join Dick Morris and the Washington Examiner in predicting a Romney landslide, I think Obama's going to win all the close states except FL and NC. Obama 303, Romney 235 .

Bonus predictions: the Maine House goes back to the Ds, but Rs retain the Senate. Marriage referendum barely squeaks through, closer than expected.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map

I couldn't find a widget that would embed a nifty map on this page like I did last time, but the widget below will allow you to post a link here to a map showing your predictions. The link included here is merely my opinion on how the election SHOULD turn out, not how it will turn out.

2012 Contest Widget

You should be able to click on "Add Your Map" to bring you to a page where you can make your map. You can then share your map back on this page.

Premature Congratulations

Well, things haven't quite been finalized yet, but based on the way things are going, I think I can fairly safely predict that the winner of the contest is ME!!! I don't want to say that I am some sort of political genius soothsayer, so I won't say it. Oh wait, I guess I just said it. Oh well, it's out there now and it's on the internet so it must be true. I won't focus on the losers, I'll leave that to others, but I think it's clear that, as the Japanese say, the nails that stuck out got pounded back down in this contest.

I know Obama's slightly up in the polls in NC, but I just can't believe he's going to win there. I do believe, however, for absolutely no reason at all, that he will win MO. Thus:

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Emil's Prediction - Upset Alert

Emil had problems uploading his map so I've taken his map and explanations and posted below.

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Bottom line, someone has to take the upset and it might as well be me. McCain 273 Obama 265

Let me be clear, I give Obama about a 70% chance of winning this thing, but these battleground polls are close and will make all the difference.
In order for things to break McCain's way he has to hope for two main things. One, that the IBD/TIPP poll is still the most accurate poll out there and keeps him within 2 points going into tomorrow night and B:
that there truly are a large number of undecideds left and they are breaking for McCain as some polls suggest.

I give NV to McCain, but barely. It was tight in 04 and will be tight in 08. Early voting has gone Obama's way, but Obama leads by 6.12 percent in a voter pool that is about 13.1 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That would make me nervous if I were an Obama supporter, as it indicates more than a few pro-McCain Democrats casting ballots out there. If the Nevada Republicans show up and narrow that partisan breakdown to anything resembling the statewide party registration numbers - a 7 percent Democrat margin - McCain should be able to eke out a narrow victory.

FL is going to be close. I fear 2000 all over again. Early voting has favored Obama but absentee ballots are expected to be in a comparable number and they favor McCain.

NC and VA are the two key states in my opinion. If one candidate wins both the race is over. Both states are going to be tight and will be completely dependent on turnout.

OH will be close as well. Recent polls have given McCain a slight edge and the recent news about coal doesn't help, considering eastern OH is full of blue collar democrats, union democrats, coal and steel workers and if a democrat is going to win OH they have to do very well in the eastern part of the state.

PA is going to be very interesting. PA has been reliably blue in the past, but Obama has been under-performing Kerry in key areas and McCain has been out performing Bush in Western PA. Given the comments about guns, religion, coal and Murtha's recent comments PA is completely up for grabs and will depend heavily on turnout in the greater Philly area vs turnout in central and western PA.

Like I said this is Obama's to lose. All the national polls point to strong support for him. At the very least I doubt this will be a landslide, but Obama has all the aces, but McCain is playing for the straight flush.

Tempered Landslide

<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

If things fall Obama's way, it's going to be a landslide. Here, I am tempering my projections slightly because momentum everywhere is hard to fight against. That's why I predict Indiana to stay red this year.