Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Premature Congratulations
Well, things haven't quite been finalized yet, but based on the way things are going, I think I can fairly safely predict that the winner of the contest is ME!!! I don't want to say that I am some sort of political genius soothsayer, so I won't say it. Oh wait, I guess I just said it. Oh well, it's out there now and it's on the internet so it must be true. I won't focus on the losers, I'll leave that to others, but I think it's clear that, as the Japanese say, the nails that stuck out got pounded back down in this contest.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
I know Obama's slightly up in the polls in NC, but I just can't believe he's going to win there. I do believe, however, for absolutely no reason at all, that he will win MO. Thus:
<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
Monday, November 3, 2008
Emil's Prediction - Upset Alert
Emil had problems uploading his map so I've taken his map and explanations and posted below.
<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
Bottom line, someone has to take the upset and it might as well be me. McCain 273 Obama 265
Let me be clear, I give Obama about a 70% chance of winning this thing, but these battleground polls are close and will make all the difference.
In order for things to break McCain's way he has to hope for two main things. One, that the IBD/TIPP poll is still the most accurate poll out there and keeps him within 2 points going into tomorrow night and B:
that there truly are a large number of undecideds left and they are breaking for McCain as some polls suggest.
I give NV to McCain, but barely. It was tight in 04 and will be tight in 08. Early voting has gone Obama's way, but Obama leads by 6.12 percent in a voter pool that is about 13.1 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That would make me nervous if I were an Obama supporter, as it indicates more than a few pro-McCain Democrats casting ballots out there. If the Nevada Republicans show up and narrow that partisan breakdown to anything resembling the statewide party registration numbers - a 7 percent Democrat margin - McCain should be able to eke out a narrow victory.
FL is going to be close. I fear 2000 all over again. Early voting has favored Obama but absentee ballots are expected to be in a comparable number and they favor McCain.
NC and VA are the two key states in my opinion. If one candidate wins both the race is over. Both states are going to be tight and will be completely dependent on turnout.
OH will be close as well. Recent polls have given McCain a slight edge and the recent news about coal doesn't help, considering eastern OH is full of blue collar democrats, union democrats, coal and steel workers and if a democrat is going to win OH they have to do very well in the eastern part of the state.
PA is going to be very interesting. PA has been reliably blue in the past, but Obama has been under-performing Kerry in key areas and McCain has been out performing Bush in Western PA. Given the comments about guns, religion, coal and Murtha's recent comments PA is completely up for grabs and will depend heavily on turnout in the greater Philly area vs turnout in central and western PA.
Like I said this is Obama's to lose. All the national polls point to strong support for him. At the very least I doubt this will be a landslide, but Obama has all the aces, but McCain is playing for the straight flush.
Bottom line, someone has to take the upset and it might as well be me. McCain 273 Obama 265
Let me be clear, I give Obama about a 70% chance of winning this thing, but these battleground polls are close and will make all the difference.
In order for things to break McCain's way he has to hope for two main things. One, that the IBD/TIPP poll is still the most accurate poll out there and keeps him within 2 points going into tomorrow night and B:
that there truly are a large number of undecideds left and they are breaking for McCain as some polls suggest.
I give NV to McCain, but barely. It was tight in 04 and will be tight in 08. Early voting has gone Obama's way, but Obama leads by 6.12 percent in a voter pool that is about 13.1 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That would make me nervous if I were an Obama supporter, as it indicates more than a few pro-McCain Democrats casting ballots out there. If the Nevada Republicans show up and narrow that partisan breakdown to anything resembling the statewide party registration numbers - a 7 percent Democrat margin - McCain should be able to eke out a narrow victory.
FL is going to be close. I fear 2000 all over again. Early voting has favored Obama but absentee ballots are expected to be in a comparable number and they favor McCain.
NC and VA are the two key states in my opinion. If one candidate wins both the race is over. Both states are going to be tight and will be completely dependent on turnout.
OH will be close as well. Recent polls have given McCain a slight edge and the recent news about coal doesn't help, considering eastern OH is full of blue collar democrats, union democrats, coal and steel workers and if a democrat is going to win OH they have to do very well in the eastern part of the state.
PA is going to be very interesting. PA has been reliably blue in the past, but Obama has been under-performing Kerry in key areas and McCain has been out performing Bush in Western PA. Given the comments about guns, religion, coal and Murtha's recent comments PA is completely up for grabs and will depend heavily on turnout in the greater Philly area vs turnout in central and western PA.
Like I said this is Obama's to lose. All the national polls point to strong support for him. At the very least I doubt this will be a landslide, but Obama has all the aces, but McCain is playing for the straight flush.
Tempered Landslide
If things fall Obama's way, it's going to be a landslide. Here, I am tempering my projections slightly because momentum everywhere is hard to fight against. That's why I predict Indiana to stay red this year.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
David's Pick
This is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, this is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, this is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, not with a bang but with the inexorable march of the Obama behemoth reaching the goal that has become more and more realistic each passing month, a landslide victory.
I actually think this prediction is a little conservative. The only state I'm predicting to go for Obama that would be any kind of surprise is Indiana, based on the fact that Obama will dominate McCain in turnout. I think that Obama is going to outperform his polls in the South and win Virginia easily and NC narrowly. I don't think it's going to be a late night before we find out that Obama's the next President.
<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
I actually think this prediction is a little conservative. The only state I'm predicting to go for Obama that would be any kind of surprise is Indiana, based on the fact that Obama will dominate McCain in turnout. I think that Obama is going to outperform his polls in the South and win Virginia easily and NC narrowly. I don't think it's going to be a late night before we find out that Obama's the next President.
CartoGraphic Violence
You'll be pleased to know that Dems have out-voted Republicans at a 2:1 clip during the early voting period here in NC. You'll be even more please to know that lines for several hours long on many of those early voting days, indicating a very high turnout. In my estimation, the greater the turnout, the more likely it is that Obama will win.
As a researcher who has done enough political polling in the past, I find that the best part about this election is the rise of sources like fivethityeight.com, which seem to exist solely to counter today's increasing number of idiots.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Jeff'y's Picks
Try as I might, I couldn't come up with a plausible scenario in which Obama captures 334 electoral votes. Oh well.
<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
I Don't Trust Florida
Florida is too filled with the crazies. I hope they prove me wrong.
GOBAMA map
I was able to give Ohio & Florida to McCain and still allow Barack to win. I also gave McCain Connecticut since they have Lieberman, we don't want them on our side. Rich and I were at dinner last night and heard that there are emails going around the minority community saying that Democrats are supposed to vote on Wednesday instead because the polls would not have the capacity. Hopefully people aren't that stupid, but then again they did vote for Bush twice. Also, Obama's infomercial made me cry. :( GOBAMA!
Covincing, though not quite a landslide
I got to a reasonable 270 for Obama without any true swing states. That makes me feel better.
&amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;strong&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'&amp;amp;gt;2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President&amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;gt;&amp;amp;lt;/strong&amp;amp;gt; - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.&amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;gt;
Prediction Will Come Monday
I am happily registered as a "follower". To quote the movementarians, the leader is great the leader is good...
This blog was a great idea, looking forward to increased friendly banter and thought provoking discussions. I apologize in advance for any miss spelled words or poor syntax.
This blog was a great idea, looking forward to increased friendly banter and thought provoking discussions. I apologize in advance for any miss spelled words or poor syntax.
Beth's pick
This is how Democrats will be taking over the country...
<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>
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