>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.
You'll be pleased to know that Dems have out-voted Republicans at a 2:1 clip during the early voting period here in NC. You'll be even more please to know that lines for several hours long on many of those early voting days, indicating a very high turnout. In my estimation, the greater the turnout, the more likely it is that Obama will win.
As a researcher who has done enough political polling in the past, I find that the best part about this election is the rise of sources like fivethityeight.com, which seem to exist solely to counter today's increasing number of idiots.