Sunday, November 2, 2008

David's Pick

This is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, this is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, this is how GOP control of the Presidency ends, not with a bang but with the inexorable march of the Obama behemoth reaching the goal that has become more and more realistic each passing month, a landslide victory.

I actually think this prediction is a little conservative. The only state I'm predicting to go for Obama that would be any kind of surprise is Indiana, based on the fact that Obama will dominate McCain in turnout. I think that Obama is going to outperform his polls in the South and win Virginia easily and NC narrowly. I don't think it's going to be a late night before we find out that Obama's the next President.

<p><strong>><a href=''>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>


Strobl said...

Montana is now in play according to CNN. Montana. A 20 percentage point win for the the GOP in '04. Does anyone like McCain anymore?

I'm tempted to revise my picks.

Dave said...

I think that my prediction is somewhere around the median of what can be expected on Tuesday, but there are a lot more states that I wouldn't be shocked to see go Obama. Some include MT, ND, GA (if there's huge AA turnout) and even AZ and one of the electoral votes from Nebraska (couldn't remember their postal abbreviation, is it NB, NE???). Anyway, I'd be a lot more surprised by Obama reaping under 300 EVs than if he comes close to 400.

Strobl said...

Based on Silver's projections, 338, 353, and 364 are the most likely totals. I went with the 353 because I don't have any faith in Indiana. It's like Ohio Junior. Or Ohio With Idiots.

I think that some of these "tossups" will ultimately revert to form. ND, MT, even MO still have too many bumpkins to get over the hump.

And the trouble with the Nebraska votes is that all of their congressmen are GOP.

However, I agree that there's a susbstantial chance that he'll take several states above and beyond what I have projected.

It would be gratifying to see something more like Beth's map on Wednesday morning. I don't really care what happens beyond Obama A0 winning, and B) winning early enough that I know about it before I go to sleep.

Dave said...

I agree that, absent a Beth style landslide I see MO staying Red. I picked Indiana to go blue both because of the ground game thing and because Obama's got a little hometown hero thing going on there (which is probably why he's been so competitive there all along) based on being the Senator from the state next door. Personally, I think that if PA gets called for Obama, it's over. There's just no way McCain wins every single one of those formerly red swing states. So the only way he can win without that happening is with PA. Contrary to fervent wishes of McCain loyalists, though, there's really no reason to believe based on the polls that McCain can win there. Sure it's tightened from like 12 points to around 6-8, but that's still far more than Kerry won by. Absent some huge hidden racist vote out there (which may be the only way McCain can win the election period) there's no way McCain wins PA.

Strobl said...

Well, I think the large media outlets do everyone a disservice by focusing so heavily on the national percentages.

It's not that relevant to point out that candidate A has a 7-point lead nationwide over Candidate B, because that number alone fails to account for state results.

People see the race "tightening" based on that number an assume it means that McCain is gaining ground when in fact it doesn't necessarily mean anything at all.

I understand the media's desire to feed America's love of the informational snapshot, but it's really misleading to the average Joe the Plumber.

Dave said...

What about Jane Sixpack? I think your exclusion of her from your analysis is sexist.

Strobl said...

Sorry. I'm not a "real American".