Monday, November 3, 2008

Emil's Prediction - Upset Alert

Emil had problems uploading his map so I've taken his map and explanations and posted below.

<p><strong>><a href=''>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Bottom line, someone has to take the upset and it might as well be me. McCain 273 Obama 265

Let me be clear, I give Obama about a 70% chance of winning this thing, but these battleground polls are close and will make all the difference.
In order for things to break McCain's way he has to hope for two main things. One, that the IBD/TIPP poll is still the most accurate poll out there and keeps him within 2 points going into tomorrow night and B:
that there truly are a large number of undecideds left and they are breaking for McCain as some polls suggest.

I give NV to McCain, but barely. It was tight in 04 and will be tight in 08. Early voting has gone Obama's way, but Obama leads by 6.12 percent in a voter pool that is about 13.1 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That would make me nervous if I were an Obama supporter, as it indicates more than a few pro-McCain Democrats casting ballots out there. If the Nevada Republicans show up and narrow that partisan breakdown to anything resembling the statewide party registration numbers - a 7 percent Democrat margin - McCain should be able to eke out a narrow victory.

FL is going to be close. I fear 2000 all over again. Early voting has favored Obama but absentee ballots are expected to be in a comparable number and they favor McCain.

NC and VA are the two key states in my opinion. If one candidate wins both the race is over. Both states are going to be tight and will be completely dependent on turnout.

OH will be close as well. Recent polls have given McCain a slight edge and the recent news about coal doesn't help, considering eastern OH is full of blue collar democrats, union democrats, coal and steel workers and if a democrat is going to win OH they have to do very well in the eastern part of the state.

PA is going to be very interesting. PA has been reliably blue in the past, but Obama has been under-performing Kerry in key areas and McCain has been out performing Bush in Western PA. Given the comments about guns, religion, coal and Murtha's recent comments PA is completely up for grabs and will depend heavily on turnout in the greater Philly area vs turnout in central and western PA.

Like I said this is Obama's to lose. All the national polls point to strong support for him. At the very least I doubt this will be a landslide, but Obama has all the aces, but McCain is playing for the straight flush.


Dave said...

I like all the gambling rhetoric out there regarding McCain on the part of those supporting him. Everytime I hear one of those gambling comparisons, I hear Kenny "Wood makes it good" Rogers singing "The Gambler" in my head, so that's at least one positive McCain association I have coming out of this election (that and the sweet sweet taste of wood smoked chicken . . . Mmm, mmm, mmm).

At least you're realistic that this doesn't have a good shot of happening. Basically, McCain needs every single state that is close in the polls to swing his way, plus some that aren't. This in a year when the wave is more likely to go in the other direction a la 2006. I'll hope you're wrong and I'm right and try to keep the nightmares at bay for another night that you might be onto something here.

ET said...

Smart money is still on Obama, no doubt about that. It really has to be the political equivalent of a wild card team winning three games on the road, in inhospitable conditions, against pro-bowl and hall of fame QBs and then going up against a team that has been perfect all year and then somehow squeaking out a win. Not saying it's gonna happen, but...

Strobl said...

My prediction is that a rich guy will become President.